Athens, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

210
FXUS62 KFFC 231043
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
643 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Key Messages

    - A weak cold front will bring little to no rainfall Today.

    - A cooler and drier airmass will be reinforced across N GA.

- Precip moves back in across the area Saturday.

Current satellite loop shows mostly high clouds streaming from
W to E across the state this morning. There is a weak frontal
boundary over TN that is moving slowly south and should push into
N GA over the next few hours. This boundary will continue to sink
south today mainly increasing cloud cover across North and
central GA. May also see an isolated sprinkle or two during peak
heating of the day along the frontal boundary but not expecting
anything more than that. Keeping precip chances at 5% or less
across the area Today. This front is expected to stall across
central GA this evening and then act as a guide for our next rain
maker moving in Sat morning.

During the day today a weak wave begins to develop across the
central plains along the tail end of the frontal boundary. The
wave moves into the Mid MS river valley Tonight, and into NW GA
around daybreak Sat morning. This wave never becomes too organized
and should bring just general showers and thunderstorms to north
and portions of central GA Sat. Instability indices stay fairly
weak for this time of year so not expecting any severe storms
through Sat afternoon/evening.

Temps Today and Sat will stay fairly cool behind this frontal
boundary with highs across North GA (mainly along and north of
Interstate 20) mainly in the 70s. Highs south of the front
(Central GA) will get up into the 80s to lower 90s.

01

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Key Messages:

        - Rain chances each day through Wednesday.

        - Cold air damming event may support slightly cooler than
          average highs.

As we enter the extended range on Sunday, a multi-day mid-level
northwest flow event across the Southeast will be tapering off,
bringing with it chances for a punctuating round of showers and
thunderstorms as an embedded shortwave disturbance treks across the
state. Despite ample surface-based instability (on the order of 1500-
2000 J/kg), flow at the surface and aloft will be relatively
unimpressive (bulk shear of 15-25kts, with no notable shape to
simulated hodographs). However, weak organization of storms into
clusters or perhaps a quasi-line is possible, especially focused
along any lingering outflow boundaries from prior days. Given the
rather dilute parameter space, no areas are currently outlooked by
SPC for Sunday proper.

Moving into Monday (Memorial Day), a brief lull in mid-level flow is
accompanied by a strong surface high pressure system sliding across
the great Lakes region and toward the Mid-Atlantic. As it does so,
the U-shaped isobars that characterize cold air damming begin to sag
southward across the Carolinas and into portions of northern
Georgia. The aforementioned surface high sticks around for several
days before exiting the Eastern Seaboard, and given a strong push of
overrunning moisture through midweek, is likely to be reinforced by
some amount of precipitation falling into the cool dome. Global
model guidance notoriously struggles with the strength, staying
power, and southern/western extent of wedge events, and the NBM
ensemble is no different: 10th percentile highs are as low as the
upper 60s to lower 70s -- a strong wedge; 90th percentile highs are
in the mid-80s to lower 90s -- a weak wedge. For now, will be
trending on the lower side of guidance for typical wedge areas
(points north and east of the Atlanta Metro) to keep highs in the
70s to lower 80s Sunday through Tuesday. With abundant cloud cover
forecast to linger overnight through much of the extended, warm lows
are likely, in the upper 50s to near 70.

As implied above, the first half of next week is likely to be dreary
and wet. Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are possible as
a swath of moisture (and associated frontal boundary) generated
earlier in the weekend along a zone of mid-level confluence across
the midsection of the country advances eastward. Currently, 4-day
rainfall totals -- Sunday through Wednesday -- look to be 0.75-1.75"
for areas along and south of a line extending from Atlanta to
Athens, and 2-4" for areas to the north. A Marginal (level 1 out of
4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of north
Georgia on Sunday and Monday, and the brunt of the period`s rainfall
looks to come late afternoon Monday through early afternoon Tuesday.
Exact amounts/ranges are subject to change over the next few days,
but given that 6-hour Flash Flood Guidance currently sits between 3-
4.5" areawide, not expecting widespread flooding concerns, but
particularly flashy creeks/streams could see some impacts. Stay
tuned.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR ceilings with no precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs
expected Today and Tonight. Winds will be out of the NW all day
with speeds around 6kt or less this morning. Will see wind speeds
increase into the 8-12kt range with gust to 18kt through the
afternoon hours. Wind speeds will diminish to 10kt or less after
sunset. Expecting some increased clouds after sunrise Sat with
precip chances increasing through mid day. Will introduce a PROB30
at the very end of the ATL TAF between 16z-18z Sat for -SHRA and
5SM for VSBYs.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  55  77  61 /   0  10  20  20
Atlanta         81  61  80  64 /   0  10  30  30
Blairsville     71  48  71  54 /   0  20  40  40
Cartersville    78  55  76  60 /   0  30  40  40
Columbus        89  65  90  67 /   0   0  10  10
Gainesville     77  56  74  62 /  10  20  30  30
Macon           87  63  88  66 /   0   0  10  10
Rome            78  55  75  60 /   0  30  50  40
Peachtree City  83  59  83  63 /   0  10  20  20
Vidalia         89  66  89  69 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...01